Variables and considerations
1) Predictability: predictability varies depending on overall conditions ,the weather ,changing seasons, current integrity etc. probably the best way to accertian this is by the ongoing results ,holding back when predictability is bad and gambling when good
2)Weight differentials: although a runner would need a large weight advantage ,ignoring other factors ,to be considered a "good thing" ,weight is a major consideration
3)Going: perhaps equal to weight as a consideration
4)Distance: Vital again ,in the majority of races there are runners that need to be accessed as to there ability to "make the distance" or are best at a particular distance ,other factors here are the age of the animals and there acustomization to longer distances ,they can assume they have done enough when they have run there usual distance and sometimes virtually stop at about that point.
5)Track: very important as of course some runners have track preferences depending on there build and breeding etc. ,stamina and speed being the main elements ,hence the saying "horses for courses"
6)The Draw:can mean nothing or a lot
7)Fitness: as usual we've probably got this to far down the list ,"race fitness" is nearly always imperative ,contrarily they need time to recover from previous runs especially over longer distances
8)Winning form: another factor probably not given enough consideration, it is normally a jockeys brief, to win by as short a distance as possible, you should check the form book notes as to whether a horse has won easily, comfortably or "all out", in order to access this form
9)Prices:well we want to win money and no matter how good the selections any horse can (and will) have an off day ,you cannot win long term unless the the prices are right.
10)Assessment of chance factors: hampering ,unclear run ,bad break etc.
11)The Jockey and Trainer: we don't consider these in our data analysis ,but of course there important considerations
12)General performance: consistent ,improving ,declining ,inconsistent
13)Time of year:some horse's run better at different times of the year
14)Staking methods: a percentage of pool system is generally considered safest and best ,but some kind of method should be used
15)Will to Win: is the runner keen to win or prefers to keep "out of the limelight" as it were
16) Summing up:there's a lot to consider ,make notes or use the jotter
17) Field size: small fields are easier to work out and have better bookmakers betting percentages but are more liable to fixing, always bear the "Human factor"in mind